diff --git a/5.ipynb b/5.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c21f79d --- /dev/null +++ b/5.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "id": "b0c9ccef-ed78-460b-ada2-2ee70be45019", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "0\n", + "1\n", + "2\n", + "3\n", + "4\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "def num_gen(n):\n", + " for i in range(n):\n", + " yield i\n", + "for num in num_gen(5):\n", + " print(num)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "id": "422c3d89-83e2-4f54-acaf-9f03bc938beb", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.13.3" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 5 +} diff --git a/portfolio_analysis.py b/portfolio_analysis.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..32cf574 --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis.py @@ -0,0 +1,1783 @@ +import yfinance as yf +import akshare as ak +import pandas as pd +import numpy as np +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +import matplotlib +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +import os +import warnings + +warnings.filterwarnings('ignore') + +# 设置中文字体 +matplotlib.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['SimHei', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'DejaVu Sans'] +matplotlib.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False + + +def create_output_directory(): + """创建输出目录""" + timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S") + output_dir = f"portfolio_analysis_{timestamp}" + + # 创建主目录 + if not os.path.exists(output_dir): + os.makedirs(output_dir) + + # 创建子目录 + subdirs = ['tables', 'charts', 'data'] + for subdir in subdirs: + subdir_path = os.path.join(output_dir, subdir) + if not os.path.exists(subdir_path): + os.makedirs(subdir_path) + + print(f"输出目录已创建: {output_dir}/") + return output_dir + + +def get_a_stock_data(symbol='515450', years=5): + """ + 使用AKShare获取A股515450近五年的数据 + """ + print(f"正在通过AKShare获取A股 {symbol} 近{years}年数据...") + + # 计算5年前的日期 + end_date = datetime.now() + start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=years * 365) + + # 格式化日期 + start_str = start_date.strftime('%Y%m%d') + end_str = end_date.strftime('%Y%m%d') + + try: + print("尝试使用ETF基金接口获取A股数据...") + + # 方法1:尝试使用ETF基金接口 + try: + df = ak.fund_etf_hist_em(symbol=symbol, period="daily", + start_date=start_str, end_date=end_str, + adjust="qfq") + print("使用ETF基金接口成功") + except Exception as e1: + print(f"ETF基金接口失败: {e1}") + + # 方法2:尝试使用股票接口 + print("尝试使用股票接口...") + try: + # 尝试不同的后缀 + for suffix in ['.SZ', '.SS', '']: + try: + stock_symbol = f"{symbol}{suffix}" if suffix else symbol + df = ak.stock_zh_a_hist(symbol=stock_symbol, period="daily", + start_date=start_str, end_date=end_str, + adjust="qfq") + print(f"使用股票接口成功: {stock_symbol}") + break + except: + continue + except Exception as e2: + print(f"股票接口失败: {e2}") + raise ValueError(f"无法通过AKShare获取A股{symbol}数据") + + if df.empty: + raise ValueError(f"未能获取到A股 {symbol} 的数据") + + print(f"获取到 {len(df)} 行数据") + + # 重命名列 + column_mapping = { + '日期': 'Date', + '时间': 'Date', + '收盘': 'Close', + '收盘价': 'Close', + 'price': 'Close', + '最新价': 'Close' + } + + for old_col, new_col in column_mapping.items(): + if old_col in df.columns: + df = df.rename(columns={old_col: new_col}) + + # 确保Date列是datetime类型 + if 'Date' in df.columns: + df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date']) + df = df.set_index('Date') + else: + # 如果没有Date列,使用索引 + df.index = pd.to_datetime(df.index) + + # 按日期排序 + df = df.sort_index() + + # 提取收盘价 + close_price = None + for col in ['Close', '收盘', '收盘价', 'price', '最新价']: + if col in df.columns: + close_price = df[col] + print(f"使用 '{col}' 列作为收盘价") + break + + if close_price is None and len(df.columns) > 0: + print("警告: 未找到标准收盘价列,尝试使用第一列数值列") + for col in df.columns: + if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(df[col]): + close_price = df[col] + print(f"使用 '{col}' 列作为收盘价") + break + + if close_price is None: + raise ValueError("无法提取收盘价数据") + + # 转换为数值类型并处理缺失值 + close_price = pd.to_numeric(close_price, errors='coerce') + close_price = close_price.ffill().bfill() + + # 移除时区信息 + close_price.index = close_price.index.tz_localize(None) + + print(f"A股 {symbol} 数据获取成功!") + print(f"数据时间范围: {close_price.index[0].date()} 到 {close_price.index[-1].date()}") + print(f"总交易日数: {len(close_price)}") + + return close_price + + except Exception as e: + print(f"通过AKShare获取A股 {symbol} 数据时出错: {e}") + raise + + +def get_us_stock_data(symbol='QLD', years=5): + """ + 使用yfinance获取美股数据(使用QLD) + """ + print(f"正在通过yfinance获取美股 {symbol} 近{years}年数据...") + + # 计算5年前的日期 + end_date = datetime.now() + start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=years * 365) + + # 格式化日期为字符串 + start_str = start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d') + end_str = end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d') + + print(f"时间范围: {start_str} 到 {end_str}") + + try: + # 创建Ticker对象 + ticker = yf.Ticker(symbol) + + # 获取历史数据 + stock_data = ticker.history(start=start_str, end=end_str) + + if stock_data.empty: + print(f"警告: {symbol} 数据为空,尝试获取最大历史数据...") + stock_data = ticker.history(period="max") + + if stock_data.empty: + raise ValueError(f"未能获取到美股 {symbol} 的数据") + + # 截取最近5年的数据 + cutoff_date = end_date - timedelta(days=years * 365) + stock_data = stock_data[stock_data.index >= pd.Timestamp(cutoff_date)] + print("使用最大历史数据截取成功") + + print(f"美股 {symbol} 数据下载成功!") + print( + f"数据时间范围: {stock_data.index[0].date()} 到 {stock_data.index[-1].date()}") # 修复这里:使用stock_data而不是stock_prices + print(f"总交易日数: {len(stock_data)}") + + # 提取收盘价 + close_price = None + + # 优先使用调整后收盘价 + if 'Adj Close' in stock_data.columns: + close_price = stock_data['Adj Close'] + print("使用 'Adj Close' 列作为收盘价") + elif 'Close' in stock_data.columns: + close_price = stock_data['Close'] + print("使用 'Close' 列作为收盘价") + else: + # 尝试寻找包含'Close'的列 + for col in stock_data.columns: + if 'close' in str(col).lower(): + close_price = stock_data[col] + print(f"使用 '{col}' 列作为收盘价") + break + + if close_price is None: + print("警告: 未找到标准收盘价列,尝试使用第一列数值列") + for col in stock_data.columns: + if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(stock_data[col]): + close_price = stock_data[col] + print(f"使用 '{col}' 列作为收盘价") + break + + if close_price is None: + raise ValueError("无法提取收盘价数据") + + # 转换为数值类型并处理缺失值 + close_price = pd.to_numeric(close_price, errors='coerce') + close_price = close_price.ffill().bfill() + + # 移除时区信息 + close_price.index = close_price.index.tz_localize(None) + + return close_price + + except Exception as e: + print(f"通过yfinance获取美股 {symbol} 数据时出错: {e}") + raise + + +def get_exchange_rate_data(years=5): + """ + 获取人民币兑美元汇率数据(无参数版本) + """ + print("正在获取人民币兑美元汇率数据...") + + # 计算日期范围 + end_date = datetime.now() + start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=years * 365) + + try: + # 直接调用函数,无任何参数 + df = ak.currency_boc_safe() + + if df.empty: + raise ValueError("未能获取到汇率数据") + + print(f"获取到 {len(df)} 条汇率数据") + print(f"数据列名: {df.columns.tolist()}") + print(f"数据示例:\n{df.head()}") + + # 检查数据列名,根据实际列名重命名 + # 注意:列名可能是中文的 + column_mapping = {} + + # 查找日期列 + date_columns = ['日期', 'Date', 'date', 'time', '交易日', '交易日期'] + for col in date_columns: + if col in df.columns: + column_mapping[col] = 'Date' + break + + # 查找汇率列(美元兑人民币中间价) + rate_columns = ['美元', 'USD', '中间价', '现汇卖出价', '现汇买入价', 'price', 'rate', '汇率'] + for col in rate_columns: + if col in df.columns: + column_mapping[col] = 'Exchange_Rate' + break + + # 如果找到了需要重命名的列,执行重命名 + if column_mapping: + df = df.rename(columns=column_mapping) + print(f"已将列名映射为: {column_mapping}") + + # 确保有Date列 + if 'Date' not in df.columns and len(df.columns) > 0: + # 使用第一列作为日期 + first_col = df.columns[0] + df = df.rename(columns={first_col: 'Date'}) + print(f"将第一列 '{first_col}' 作为Date列") + + # 确保有Exchange_Rate列 + if 'Exchange_Rate' not in df.columns and len(df.columns) > 1: + # 使用第二列作为汇率 + second_col = df.columns[1] + df = df.rename(columns={second_col: 'Exchange_Rate'}) + print(f"将第二列 '{second_col}' 作为Exchange_Rate列") + + # 转换为datetime类型 + df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'], errors='coerce') + df = df.dropna(subset=['Date']) + df = df.set_index('Date') + df = df.sort_index() + + # 提取汇率数据 + if 'Exchange_Rate' in df.columns: + exchange_rate = df['Exchange_Rate'] + else: + # 如果没有Exchange_Rate列,尝试使用第一个数值列 + for col in df.columns: + if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(df[col]): + exchange_rate = df[col] + print(f"使用数值列 '{col}' 作为汇率数据") + break + else: + raise ValueError("找不到汇率数据列") + + # 转换为数值类型 + exchange_rate = pd.to_numeric(exchange_rate, errors='coerce') + exchange_rate = exchange_rate.ffill().bfill() + + # 筛选指定日期范围 + exchange_rate = exchange_rate[(exchange_rate.index >= start_date) & + (exchange_rate.index <= end_date)] + + if len(exchange_rate) == 0: + print("警告: 指定日期范围内无汇率数据,使用全部数据") + exchange_rate = exchange_rate + + print(f"汇率数据获取成功!") + print(f"数据时间范围: {exchange_rate.index[0].date()} 到 {exchange_rate.index[-1].date()}") + print(f"可用数据点数: {len(exchange_rate)}") + print(f"最新汇率: 1美元 = {exchange_rate.iloc[-1]:.4f} 人民币") + + # 如果需要,可以插值生成每日数据 + if len(exchange_rate) < years * 365 * 0.5: # 如果数据点少于预期的一半 + print("数据点较少,生成完整日期序列...") + full_index = pd.date_range(start=start_date, end=end_date, freq='D') + exchange_rate = exchange_rate.reindex(full_index) + exchange_rate = exchange_rate.ffill().bfill() + print(f"插值后数据点数: {len(exchange_rate)}") + + return exchange_rate + + except Exception as e: + print(f"获取汇率数据时出错: {e}") + import traceback + traceback.print_exc() + print("将使用固定汇率7.1进行估算") + # 创建完整的日期序列 + all_dates = pd.date_range(start=start_date, end=end_date, freq='D') + exchange_rate = pd.Series(7.1, index=all_dates, name='Exchange_Rate') + return exchange_rate + + +def get_stock_data(): + """ + 获取A股515450和美股QLD近五年的收盘价数据,以及汇率数据 + """ + print("=" * 80) + print("获取近五年A股515450与美股QLD数据") + print("=" * 80) + + all_data = {} + + try: + # 获取A股515450数据 + print("\n1. 获取A股515450数据...") + a_stock_price = get_a_stock_data('515450', years=5) + a_stock_price.name = 'A股_515450' + all_data['A股_515450'] = a_stock_price + + # 获取美股QLD数据 + print("\n2. 获取美股QLD数据...") + us_stock_price = get_us_stock_data('QLD', years=5) + us_stock_price.name = '美股_QLD' + all_data['美股_QLD'] = us_stock_price + + # 获取汇率数据 + print("\n3. 获取汇率数据...") + exchange_rate = get_exchange_rate_data(years=5) + all_data['汇率_USD_CNY'] = exchange_rate + + # 创建空的DataFrame + combined_data = pd.DataFrame() + + # 逐个添加数据 + for name, data in all_data.items(): + temp_df = pd.DataFrame({name: data}) + + if combined_data.empty: + combined_data = temp_df + else: + combined_data = combined_data.merge(temp_df, + left_index=True, + right_index=True, + how='outer') + + # 按日期排序 + combined_data = combined_data.sort_index() + + # 处理缺失值 - 前向填充和后向填充 + combined_data = combined_data.ffill().bfill() + combined_data = combined_data.dropna() + + except Exception as e: + print(f"\n数据获取失败: {e}") + raise + + if combined_data.empty: + raise ValueError("数据合并后为空,请检查数据源") + + # 计算实际的时间跨度 + start_date = combined_data.index[0] + end_date = combined_data.index[-1] + actual_days = (end_date - start_date).days + actual_years = actual_days / 365.25 + + print(f"\n数据获取完成!") + print(f"总数据行数: {len(combined_data)}") + print(f"实际时间范围: {start_date.date()} 到 {end_date.date()}") + print(f"实际时间跨度: {actual_days} 天 ({actual_years:.2f} 年)") + print(f"可用数据列: {list(combined_data.columns)}") + + return combined_data + + +def get_user_weights(asset_names): + """ + 获取用户输入的投资权重 + """ + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("投资组合权重配置") + print("=" * 60) + + # 过滤掉汇率列 + filtered_assets = [asset for asset in asset_names if '汇率' not in asset] + print(f"可用资产: {', '.join(filtered_assets)}") + print("请输入每个资产的权重百分比(总和应为100%)") + + weights = {} + + while True: + try: + total_weight = 0 + + for i, asset in enumerate(filtered_assets): + if i == 0: + prompt = f"请输入 {asset} 的权重百分比 (0-100): " + else: + remaining = 100 - total_weight + prompt = f"请输入 {asset} 的权重百分比 (剩余 {remaining}%): " + + weight_input = input(prompt).strip() + + if not weight_input: + raise ValueError("请输入一个有效的数字") + + weight = float(weight_input) + + if weight < 0 or weight > 100: + raise ValueError("权重必须在 0 到 100 之间") + + if total_weight + weight > 100: + raise ValueError(f"权重总和不能超过100%,当前已输入: {total_weight}%") + + weights[asset] = weight / 100 + total_weight += weight + + # 检查权重总和 + if abs(total_weight - 100) < 0.01: + break + elif total_weight < 100: + response = input( + f"\n权重总和为 {total_weight}%,未达到100%。是否将剩余的 {100 - total_weight}% 分配给最后一个资产? (y/n): ").lower() + if response == 'y': + last_asset = filtered_assets[-1] + weights[last_asset] += (100 - total_weight) / 100 + break + else: + print("请重新配置权重") + weights = {} + continue + else: + print(f"权重总和 {total_weight}% 超过100%,请重新配置") + weights = {} + continue + + except ValueError as e: + print(f"输入错误: {e}") + print("请重新输入") + weights = {} + + # 显示配置结果 + print("\n投资组合配置结果:") + print("-" * 40) + for asset, weight in weights.items(): + print(f"{asset}: {weight * 100:.1f}%") + + # 转换为列表格式 + weight_list = [weights[asset] for asset in filtered_assets] + + return weight_list, filtered_assets + + +def get_investment_plan(): + """ + 获取用户的投资计划 + """ + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("投资计划配置") + print("=" * 60) + + while True: + try: + # 获取初始本金 + principal_input = input("请输入初始本金金额(人民币): ").strip() + if not principal_input: + principal = 10000.0 + print(f"使用默认本金: {principal:.2f} 元") + else: + principal = float(principal_input) + if principal <= 0: + raise ValueError("本金必须大于0") + + # 获取每月定投金额 + monthly_input = input("请输入每月定投金额(人民币,输入0表示不定投): ").strip() + if not monthly_input: + monthly_investment = 0.0 + print(f"使用默认值: 无每月定投") + else: + monthly_investment = float(monthly_input) + if monthly_investment < 0: + raise ValueError("每月投资金额不能为负数") + + # 获取投资起始日期 + start_date_input = input("请输入投资起始日期(YYYY-MM-DD,留空使用数据起始日期): ").strip() + if not start_date_input: + start_date = None + print("使用数据起始日期") + else: + start_date = pd.to_datetime(start_date_input) + + break + + except ValueError as e: + print(f"输入错误: {e}") + print("请重新输入") + except Exception as e: + print(f"输入错误: {e}") + print("请重新输入") + + return { + 'initial_principal': principal, + 'monthly_investment': monthly_investment, + 'start_date': start_date + } + + +def calculate_investment_simulation(prices, weights, asset_names, investment_plan): + """ + 计算投资模拟结果(完全重构版)- 正确计算份额和收益 + """ + print("\n计算投资模拟结果...") + + # 提取股票价格和汇率 + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + exchange_rate = prices['汇率_USD_CNY'].copy() + + # 确定投资起始日期 + if investment_plan['start_date']: + start_date = pd.Timestamp(investment_plan['start_date']) + if start_date < stock_prices.index[0]: + print(f"警告: 指定起始日期 {start_date.date()} 早于数据起始日期 {stock_prices.index[0].date()}") + print(f"将使用数据起始日期: {stock_prices.index[0].date()}") + start_date = stock_prices.index[0] + else: + start_date = stock_prices.index[0] + + # 筛选投资期间的数据 + investment_prices = stock_prices[stock_prices.index >= start_date].copy() + investment_exchange = exchange_rate[exchange_rate.index >= start_date].copy() + + if investment_prices.empty: + raise ValueError("投资起始日期后无有效数据") + + print(f"投资起始日期: {start_date.date()}") + print(f"投资结束日期: {investment_prices.index[-1].date()}") + print(f"投资天数: {len(investment_prices)}") + + # === 重新设计:简化但正确的投资模拟 === + + # 1. 计算每日投资组合的人民币价值 + portfolio_daily_value_cny = pd.Series(0.0, index=investment_prices.index) + + for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names): + asset_weight = weights[i] + + if '美股' in asset: + # 美股:美元价格 × 汇率 = 人民币价格 + usd_price = investment_prices[asset] + # 对齐汇率和价格的索引 + aligned_exchange = investment_exchange.reindex(usd_price.index).ffill().bfill() + cny_price = usd_price * aligned_exchange + portfolio_daily_value_cny += cny_price * asset_weight + else: + # A股:直接使用人民币价格 + portfolio_daily_value_cny += investment_prices[asset] * asset_weight + + print(f"投资组合初始价值(理论): {portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[0]:.2f} 元") + print(f"投资组合最终价值(理论): {portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[-1]:.2f} 元") + print(f"投资组合总增长率: {portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[-1] / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[0]:.4f}倍") + + # 2. 计算投资组合的日收益率 + portfolio_daily_returns = portfolio_daily_value_cny.pct_change().fillna(0) + + # 3. 模拟实际投资过程(更直观的方法) + initial_principal = investment_plan['initial_principal'] + monthly_investment = investment_plan['monthly_investment'] + + # 初始化投资记录 + investment_records = pd.DataFrame(index=investment_prices.index) + investment_records['投资组合价值'] = portfolio_daily_value_cny + investment_records['投资组合日收益率'] = portfolio_daily_returns + investment_records['现金投入_累计'] = 0.0 + investment_records['持有资产价值'] = 0.0 + investment_records['累计收益率'] = 0.0 + + # 4. 处理初始投资 + first_date = investment_records.index[0] + + # 假设初始投资时购买1单位投资组合 + initial_investment_ratio = initial_principal / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[0] + + investment_records.loc[first_date, '现金投入_累计'] = initial_principal + investment_records.loc[first_date, '持有资产价值'] = initial_principal # 初始时资产价值等于投入本金 + + # 5. 处理每月定投 + cash_investments = {first_date: initial_principal} # 记录每笔现金投入 + + if monthly_investment > 0: + # 找到每月第一个交易日进行定投 + all_dates = investment_records.index + + # 按月份分组,取每月的第一个交易日 + monthly_first_dates = [] + current_month = None + + for date in all_dates: + month_key = (date.year, date.month) + if month_key != current_month: + monthly_first_dates.append(date) + current_month = month_key + + # 排除第一个月(已经处理了初始投资) + if monthly_first_dates and monthly_first_dates[0] == first_date: + monthly_first_dates = monthly_first_dates[1:] + + print(f"定投月份数(除首月): {len(monthly_first_dates)}") + + for invest_date in monthly_first_dates: + cash_investments[invest_date] = monthly_investment + + # 6. 计算每日的资产价值 + # 先按时间顺序处理所有投资 + sorted_dates = sorted(cash_investments.keys()) + + # 初始化变量 + total_cash_invested = 0 + current_asset_value = 0 + + for i, date in enumerate(investment_records.index): + # 检查今天是否有现金投入 + if date in cash_investments: + cash_today = cash_investments[date] + total_cash_invested += cash_today + + # 如果有现有资产,先计算到今天的增长 + if i > 0 and current_asset_value > 0: + prev_date = investment_records.index[i - 1] + days_return = portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[i] / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[i - 1] - 1 + current_asset_value *= (1 + days_return) + + # 新投入的现金按当前投资组合价值折算成资产 + investment_ratio_today = cash_today / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[i] + current_asset_value += cash_today # 简化:直接增加资产价值 + + # 记录 + investment_records.loc[date, '现金投入_累计'] = total_cash_invested + investment_records.loc[date, '持有资产价值'] = current_asset_value + + # 如果是当天有投入,需要重新计算收益率 + if current_asset_value > 0 and total_cash_invested > 0: + investment_records.loc[date, '累计收益率'] = (current_asset_value / total_cash_invested - 1) + + else: + # 没有现金投入的日子,只计算资产价值变化 + if i > 0: + # 计算从昨天到今天投资组合的增长 + prev_date = investment_records.index[i - 1] + days_return = portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[i] / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[i - 1] - 1 + + # 更新资产价值 + if current_asset_value > 0: + current_asset_value *= (1 + days_return) + + # 记录 + investment_records.loc[date, '现金投入_累计'] = total_cash_invested + investment_records.loc[date, '持有资产价值'] = current_asset_value + + # 计算累计收益率 + if current_asset_value > 0 and total_cash_invested > 0: + investment_records.loc[date, '累计收益率'] = (current_asset_value / total_cash_invested - 1) + + # 7. 前向填充缺失值 + investment_records['现金投入_累计'] = investment_records['现金投入_累计'].ffill() + investment_records['持有资产价值'] = investment_records['持有资产价值'].ffill() + investment_records['累计收益率'] = investment_records['累计收益率'].ffill() + + # 8. 计算汇总指标 + total_invested = investment_records['现金投入_累计'].iloc[-1] + final_value = investment_records['持有资产价值'].iloc[-1] + total_profit = final_value - total_invested + total_return_pct = (final_value / total_invested - 1) * 100 if total_invested > 0 else 0 + + # 计算年化收益率 + days_invested = (investment_records.index[-1] - investment_records.index[0]).days + years_invested = days_invested / 365.25 + if years_invested > 0 and total_invested > 0: + annualized_return = ((final_value / total_invested) ** (1 / years_invested) - 1) * 100 + else: + annualized_return = 0 + + # 计算各资产的投资金额和收益 + asset_investment = {} + asset_final_value = {} + asset_returns = {} + + for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names): + asset_weight = weights[i] + asset_investment[asset] = total_invested * asset_weight + + # 计算该资产的最终价值 + if '美股' in asset: + # 美股:需要考虑汇率变化和资产本身收益 + initial_price = investment_prices[asset].iloc[0] + final_price = investment_prices[asset].iloc[-1] + initial_exchange = investment_exchange.iloc[0] + final_exchange = investment_exchange.iloc[-1] + + # 美元计价的收益率 + usd_return = final_price / initial_price - 1 + # 汇率变化 + exchange_return = final_exchange / initial_exchange - 1 + # 人民币计价的综合收益率 + total_return = (1 + usd_return) * (1 + exchange_return) - 1 + + asset_final_value[asset] = asset_investment[asset] * (1 + total_return) + asset_returns[asset] = total_return * 100 + + print( + f" {asset}: 美元收益={usd_return * 100:.1f}%, 汇率收益={exchange_return * 100:.1f}%, 综合收益={total_return * 100:.1f}%") + else: + # A股:直接计算人民币收益 + initial_price = investment_prices[asset].iloc[0] + final_price = investment_prices[asset].iloc[-1] + asset_return = final_price / initial_price - 1 + asset_final_value[asset] = asset_investment[asset] * (1 + asset_return) + asset_returns[asset] = asset_return * 100 + + print(f" {asset}: 人民币收益={asset_return * 100:.1f}%") + + # 汇总结果 + simulation_results = { + 'investment_records': investment_records, + 'summary': { + '初始本金_元': initial_principal, + '每月定投_元': monthly_investment, + '总投资额_元': total_invested, + '最终资产总值_元': final_value, + '总收益_元': total_profit, + '总收益率_%': total_return_pct, + '投资天数': days_invested, + '投资年数': years_invested, + '年化收益率_%': annualized_return, + '投资起始日期': start_date.date(), + '投资结束日期': investment_records.index[-1].date(), + '资产配置': {asset: f"{weights[i] * 100:.1f}%" for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names)}, + '各资产投资金额_元': asset_investment, + '各资产最终价值_元': asset_final_value, + '各资产收益率_%': asset_returns, + '投资组合增长倍数': portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[-1] / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[0], + '现金投资笔数': len(cash_investments) + } + } + + # 打印详细的投资模拟结果 + print(f"\n投资模拟结果详情:") + print(f"- 初始本金: {initial_principal:.2f} 元") + print(f"- 每月定投: {monthly_investment:.2f} 元") + print(f"- 总投资额: {total_invested:.2f} 元") + print(f"- 最终资产: {final_value:.2f} 元") + print(f"- 总收益: {total_profit:.2f} 元") + print(f"- 总收益率: {total_return_pct:.1f}%") + print(f"- 年化收益: {annualized_return:.1f}%") + print(f"- 投资天数: {days_invested} 天") + print(f"- 投资年数: {years_invested:.2f} 年") + print(f"- 现金投资笔数: {len(cash_investments)} 笔") + print(f"- 投资组合理论增长: {portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[-1] / portfolio_daily_value_cny.iloc[0]:.4f}倍") + + return simulation_results + + +def save_investment_simulation_results(simulation_results, output_dir): + """ + 保存投资模拟结果 + """ + print("保存投资模拟结果...") + + # 1. 保存详细投资记录 + records_df = simulation_results['investment_records'] + records_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'investment_simulation_details.csv') + records_df.to_csv(records_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 详细投资记录已保存: tables/investment_simulation_details.csv") + + # 2. 保存投资汇总 + summary = simulation_results['summary'] + + summary_data = [] + summary_data.append({'指标': '初始本金', '数值': f"{summary['初始本金_元']:.2f} 元"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '每月定投金额', '数值': f"{summary['每月定投_元']:.2f} 元"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '总投资金额', '数值': f"{summary['总投资额_元']:.2f} 元"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '最终资产总值', '数值': f"{summary['最终资产总值_元']:.2f} 元"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '总收益', '数值': f"{summary['总收益_元']:.2f} 元"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '总收益率', '数值': f"{summary['总收益率_%']:.2f}%"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '投资天数', '数值': f"{summary['投资天数']} 天"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '投资年数', '数值': f"{summary['投资年数']:.2f} 年"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '年化收益率', '数值': f"{summary['年化收益率_%']:.2f}%"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '投资起始日期', '数值': str(summary['投资起始日期'])}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '投资结束日期', '数值': str(summary['投资结束日期'])}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '投资组合增长倍数', '数值': f"{summary['投资组合增长倍数']:.4f}"}) + summary_data.append({'指标': '现金投资笔数', '数值': f"{summary['现金投资笔数']} 笔"}) + + summary_df = pd.DataFrame(summary_data) + summary_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'investment_simulation_summary.csv') + summary_df.to_csv(summary_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 投资模拟汇总已保存: tables/investment_simulation_summary.csv") + + # 3. 保存各资产明细 + asset_details = [] + for asset, weight in summary['资产配置'].items(): + asset_details.append({ + '资产名称': asset, + '配置权重': weight, + '投资金额(元)': f"{summary['各资产投资金额_元'][asset]:.2f}", + '最终价值(元)': f"{summary['各资产最终价值_元'][asset]:.2f}", + '资产收益(元)': f"{summary['各资产最终价值_元'][asset] - summary['各资产投资金额_元'][asset]:.2f}", + '资产收益率(%)': f"{summary['各资产收益率_%'][asset]:.2f}" + }) + + asset_details_df = pd.DataFrame(asset_details) + asset_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'investment_asset_details.csv') + asset_details_df.to_csv(asset_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 各资产投资明细已保存: tables/investment_asset_details.csv") + + return summary_df, asset_details_df + + +def create_investment_charts(simulation_results, output_dir): + """ + 创建投资模拟图表 + """ + print("生成投资模拟图表...") + + investment_records = simulation_results['investment_records'] + summary = simulation_results['summary'] + + # 图表1: 资产增长曲线 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + plt.plot(investment_records.index, investment_records['持有资产价值'] / 10000, + label='资产总值(万元)', color='#2e8b57', linewidth=2.5) + plt.plot(investment_records.index, investment_records['现金投入_累计'] / 10000, + label='总投资额(万元)', color='#4169e1', linewidth=2.5, linestyle='--') + + plt.title( + f'投资资产增长曲线\n最终资产: {summary["最终资产总值_元"] / 10000:.2f}万元 | 总收益: {summary["总收益_元"] / 10000:.2f}万元', + fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('金额 (万元)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.legend(fontsize=11) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + growth_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '08_investment_growth.png') + plt.savefig(growth_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 资产增长曲线已保存: charts/08_investment_growth.png") + + # 图表2: 累计收益率曲线 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + plt.plot(investment_records.index, investment_records['累计收益率'] * 100, + color='#ff7f0e', linewidth=2.5) + + plt.axhline(y=0, color='black', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5) + plt.fill_between(investment_records.index, 0, investment_records['累计收益率'] * 100, + where=investment_records['累计收益率'] * 100 >= 0, + color='#ff7f0e', alpha=0.3) + + plt.title(f'投资累计收益率\n总收益率: {summary["总收益率_%"]:.2f}% | 年化收益率: {summary["年化收益率_%"]:.2f}%', + fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('累计收益率 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + returns_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '09_investment_returns.png') + plt.savefig(returns_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 累计收益率曲线已保存: charts/09_investment_returns.png") + + # 图表3: 投资进度图(如果每月定投) + if summary['每月定投_元'] > 0: + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + + # 提取每月第一天的数据 + monthly_data = investment_records.resample('MS').first() + + fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(14, 12)) + + # 子图1: 每月投资额和资产总值 + ax1.bar(monthly_data.index, monthly_data['现金投入_累计'] / 10000, + alpha=0.6, color='#4169e1', label='累计投资额(万元)') + ax1.plot(monthly_data.index, monthly_data['持有资产价值'] / 10000, + color='#2e8b57', linewidth=2.5, label='资产总值(万元)') + + ax1.set_title('月度投资进度', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold') + ax1.set_ylabel('金额 (万元)', fontsize=11) + ax1.legend(fontsize=10) + ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + + # 子图2: 每月收益率 + monthly_returns = monthly_data['累计收益率'].diff() * 100 + colors = ['#2ecc71' if x >= 0 else '#e74c3c' for x in monthly_returns] + ax2.bar(monthly_data.index, monthly_returns, color=colors, alpha=0.7) + + ax2.set_title('月度收益率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold') + ax2.set_ylabel('月收益率 (%)', fontsize=11) + ax2.set_xlabel('日期', fontsize=11) + ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + + plt.tight_layout() + + progress_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '10_investment_progress.png') + plt.savefig(progress_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 投资进度图已保存: charts/10_investment_progress.png") + + +def calculate_portfolio_performance(prices, weights, asset_names): + """ + 计算投资组合收益和指标 + """ + print("\n计算投资组合表现...") + + # 确保数据按日期排序 + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + stock_prices = stock_prices.sort_index() + + # 计算日收益率 + returns = stock_prices.pct_change().dropna() + + print(f"可用交易日数: {len(returns)}") + + if len(returns) < 50: + print(f"注意: 只有 {len(returns)} 个交易日,但会继续分析") + + # 计算投资组合收益率 + portfolio_returns = pd.Series(0.0, index=returns.index) + for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names): + portfolio_returns += returns[asset] * weights[i] + + # 计算累计收益率 + cumulative_returns = (1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod() - 1 + + # 计算最大回撤 + cumulative_value = (1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod() + running_max = cumulative_value.expanding().max() + drawdown = (cumulative_value - running_max) / running_max + max_drawdown = drawdown.min() + + # 计算时间跨度 + start_date = stock_prices.index[0] + end_date = stock_prices.index[-1] + total_days = (end_date - start_date).days + total_years = total_days / 365.25 + + # 计算年化收益率 + if total_years > 0: + final_cumulative_return = cumulative_returns.iloc[-1] + if final_cumulative_return >= -1: + annual_return = (1 + final_cumulative_return) ** (1 / total_years) - 1 + else: + annual_return = -1.0 + else: + annual_return = 0.0 + + # 年化波动率 + if len(portfolio_returns) >= 252: + annual_volatility = portfolio_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252) + else: + trading_days = len(portfolio_returns) + annual_volatility = portfolio_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252 * (trading_days / 252)) + + # 夏普比率 + risk_free_rate = 0.02 + if portfolio_returns.std() > 0: + excess_return = annual_return - risk_free_rate + sharpe_ratio = excess_return / annual_volatility if annual_volatility > 0 else 0 + else: + sharpe_ratio = 0.0 + + # 索提诺比率 + downside_returns = portfolio_returns[portfolio_returns < 0] + downside_std = downside_returns.std() if len(downside_returns) > 0 else 0 + if downside_std > 0: + annual_downside_risk = downside_std * np.sqrt(252) + sortino_ratio = (annual_return - risk_free_rate) / annual_downside_risk + else: + sortino_ratio = 0.0 + + # 其他统计指标 + positive_days = (portfolio_returns > 0).sum() + negative_days = (portfolio_returns < 0).sum() + win_rate = positive_days / len(portfolio_returns) if len(portfolio_returns) > 0 else 0 + + # 收集指标 + metrics = { + '总年数': total_years, + '交易日数': len(portfolio_returns), + '年化收益率': annual_return, + '年化波动率': annual_volatility, + '夏普比率': sharpe_ratio, + '最大回撤': max_drawdown, + '索提诺比率': sortino_ratio, + '累计收益率': cumulative_returns.iloc[-1], + '起始日期': str(stock_prices.index[0].date()), + '结束日期': str(stock_prices.index[-1].date()), + '正收益天数': positive_days, + '负收益天数': negative_days, + '胜率': win_rate, + '平均日收益': portfolio_returns.mean(), + '收益标准差': portfolio_returns.std(), + '年化下行风险': annual_downside_risk if 'annual_downside_risk' in locals() else 0 + } + + return portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, metrics, returns + + +def save_stock_price_table(prices, asset_names, output_dir): + """ + 保存股票价格表格到CSV文件 + """ + print("生成股票价格表格...") + + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + + # 1. 保存原始价格数据 + price_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'stock_prices_detailed.csv') + stock_prices.to_csv(price_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 详细价格数据已保存: tables/stock_prices_detailed.csv") + + # 2. 创建汇总表格 + summary_data = [] + + for asset in asset_names: + asset_data = stock_prices[asset] + + # 基础信息 + start_price = asset_data.iloc[0] + end_price = asset_data.iloc[-1] + max_price = asset_data.max() + min_price = asset_data.min() + avg_price = asset_data.mean() + std_price = asset_data.std() + + # 收益率计算 + total_return = (end_price - start_price) / start_price * 100 + days = (stock_prices.index[-1] - stock_prices.index[0]).days + years = days / 365.25 + if years > 0: + annual_return = ((1 + total_return / 100) ** (1 / years) - 1) * 100 + else: + annual_return = 0 + + summary_data.append({ + '资产名称': asset, + '起始价格': start_price, + '结束价格': end_price, + '总收益率%': total_return, + '年化收益率%': annual_return, + '最高价格': max_price, + '最低价格': min_price, + '平均价格': avg_price, + '价格标准差': std_price, + '数据点数': len(asset_data), + '起始日期': stock_prices.index[0].date(), + '结束日期': stock_prices.index[-1].date() + }) + + # 创建DataFrame并保存 + summary_df = pd.DataFrame(summary_data) + summary_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'stock_prices_summary.csv') + summary_df.to_csv(summary_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 价格汇总数据已保存: tables/stock_prices_summary.csv") + + return summary_df + + +def save_returns_table(prices, asset_names, returns, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, output_dir): + """ + 保存收益率表格到CSV文件 + """ + print("生成收益率表格...") + + # 1. 保存日收益率数据 + daily_returns_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'daily_returns.csv') + returns.to_csv(daily_returns_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 日收益率数据已保存: tables/daily_returns.csv") + + # 2. 创建各资产收益率统计表格 + asset_returns_summary = [] + + for asset in returns.columns: + asset_ret = returns[asset] + + # 计算各项统计 + mean_return = asset_ret.mean() * 100 + std_return = asset_ret.std() * 100 + max_return = asset_ret.max() * 100 + min_return = asset_ret.min() * 100 + positive_days = (asset_ret > 0).sum() + total_days = len(asset_ret) + win_rate = positive_days / total_days * 100 + + # 计算累计收益率 + cumulative_ret = (1 + asset_ret).cumprod() - 1 + total_cumulative = cumulative_ret.iloc[-1] * 100 + + asset_returns_summary.append({ + '资产': asset, + '日均收益率%': mean_return, + '日收益率标准差%': std_return, + '单日最大收益%': max_return, + '单日最大亏损%': min_return, + '累计收益率%': total_cumulative, + '正收益天数': positive_days, + '总天数': total_days, + '胜率%': win_rate + }) + + # 添加投资组合收益率统计 + port_mean_return = portfolio_returns.mean() * 100 + port_std_return = portfolio_returns.std() * 100 + port_max_return = portfolio_returns.max() * 100 + port_min_return = portfolio_returns.min() * 100 + port_positive_days = (portfolio_returns > 0).sum() + port_total_days = len(portfolio_returns) + port_win_rate = port_positive_days / port_total_days * 100 + port_total_cumulative = cumulative_returns.iloc[-1] * 100 + + asset_returns_summary.append({ + '资产': '投资组合', + '日均收益率%': port_mean_return, + '日收益率标准差%': port_std_return, + '单日最大收益%': port_max_return, + '单日最大亏损%': port_min_return, + '累计收益率%': port_total_cumulative, + '正收益天数': port_positive_days, + '总天数': port_total_days, + '胜率%': port_win_rate + }) + + # 保存收益率汇总 + returns_summary_df = pd.DataFrame(asset_returns_summary) + returns_summary_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'returns_summary.csv') + returns_summary_df.to_csv(returns_summary_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 收益率汇总数据已保存: tables/returns_summary.csv") + + # 3. 保存月度收益率数据 + all_assets = list(returns.columns) + ['投资组合'] + all_returns = pd.concat([returns, portfolio_returns.rename('投资组合')], axis=1) + + # 计算月度收益率 + monthly_returns = all_returns.resample('M').apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) + monthly_returns_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'monthly_returns.csv') + monthly_returns.to_csv(monthly_returns_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 月度收益率数据已保存: tables/monthly_returns.csv") + + # 4. 保存年度收益率数据 + yearly_returns = all_returns.resample('Y').apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) + yearly_returns_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'yearly_returns.csv') + yearly_returns.to_csv(yearly_returns_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 年度收益率数据已保存: tables/yearly_returns.csv") + + return returns_summary_df + + +def save_portfolio_summary_table(prices, asset_names, weights, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, metrics, returns, + output_dir): + """ + 保存投资组合总结表格到CSV文件 + """ + print("生成投资组合总结表格...") + + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + + # 1. 投资组合配置表格 + config_data = [] + total_investment = 10000 # 假设初始投资10000元 + + for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names): + weight_pct = weights[i] * 100 + allocation = total_investment * weights[i] + + # 计算该资产的表现 + asset_ret = returns[asset] + asset_cumulative = (1 + asset_ret).cumprod() - 1 + asset_total_return = asset_cumulative.iloc[-1] * 100 + asset_annual_vol = asset_ret.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100 + + config_data.append({ + '资产': asset, + '权重%': weight_pct, + '配置金额(假设¥10,000)': allocation, + '累计收益%': asset_total_return, + '年化波动率%': asset_annual_vol + }) + + config_df = pd.DataFrame(config_data) + config_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'portfolio_configuration.csv') + config_df.to_csv(config_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 投资组合配置表格已保存: tables/portfolio_configuration.csv") + + # 2. 投资组合绩效指标表格 + performance_data = [ + {'指标类别': '时间信息', '指标名称': '分析期间', '数值': f"{metrics['起始日期']} 至 {metrics['结束日期']}"}, + {'指标类别': '时间信息', '指标名称': '总交易日数', '数值': f"{metrics['交易日数']} 天"}, + {'指标类别': '时间信息', '指标名称': '分析周期', '数值': f"{metrics['总年数']:.2f} 年"}, + + {'指标类别': '收益指标', '指标名称': '累计收益率', '数值': f"{metrics['累计收益率'] * 100:.2f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '收益指标', '指标名称': '年化收益率', '数值': f"{metrics['年化收益率'] * 100:.2f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '收益指标', '指标名称': '日均收益率', '数值': f"{metrics['平均日收益'] * 100:.4f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '收益指标', '指标名称': '正收益天数', '数值': f"{metrics['正收益天数']} 天"}, + {'指标类别': '收益指标', '指标名称': '胜率', '数值': f"{metrics['胜率'] * 100:.1f}%"}, + + {'指标类别': '风险指标', '指标名称': '年化波动率', '数值': f"{metrics['年化波动率'] * 100:.2f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '风险指标', '指标名称': '最大回撤', '数值': f"{metrics['最大回撤'] * 100:.2f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '风险指标', '指标名称': '年化下行风险', '数值': f"{metrics['年化下行风险'] * 100:.2f}%"}, + {'指标类别': '风险指标', '指标名称': '日收益率标准差', '数值': f"{metrics['收益标准差'] * 100:.4f}%"}, + + {'指标类别': '风险调整后收益', '指标名称': '夏普比率', '数值': f"{metrics['夏普比率']:.3f}"}, + {'指标类别': '风险调整后收益', '指标名称': '索提诺比率', '数值': f"{metrics['索提诺比率']:.3f}"} + ] + + performance_df = pd.DataFrame(performance_data) + performance_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'portfolio_performance.csv') + performance_df.to_csv(performance_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 投资组合绩效指标表格已保存: tables/portfolio_performance.csv") + + # 3. 回撤分析表格 + cumulative_value = (1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod() + running_max = cumulative_value.expanding().max() + drawdown_series = (cumulative_value - running_max) / running_max + + # 找到回撤超过5%的事件 + drawdown_events = [] + in_drawdown = False + current_drawdown = {'start': None, 'trough': None, 'end': None, 'max_dd': 0} + + for date, dd in drawdown_series.items(): + if dd < -0.05: # 超过5%的回撤 + if not in_drawdown: + in_drawdown = True + current_drawdown['start'] = date + current_drawdown['max_dd'] = dd + current_drawdown['trough'] = date + else: + if dd < current_drawdown['max_dd']: + current_drawdown['max_dd'] = dd + current_drawdown['trough'] = date + else: + if in_drawdown: + in_drawdown = False + current_drawdown['end'] = date + + # 计算回撤持续天数 + duration = (current_drawdown['end'] - current_drawdown['start']).days + + drawdown_events.append({ + '开始日期': current_drawdown['start'].strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), + '最低点日期': current_drawdown['trough'].strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), + '结束日期': current_drawdown['end'].strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), + '持续天数': duration, + '最大回撤%': current_drawdown['max_dd'] * 100 + }) + + current_drawdown = {'start': None, 'trough': None, 'end': None, 'max_dd': 0} + + if drawdown_events: + drawdown_df = pd.DataFrame(drawdown_events) + drawdown_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'drawdown_analysis.csv') + drawdown_df.to_csv(drawdown_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 回撤分析表格已保存: tables/drawdown_analysis.csv") + else: + print("⚠ 无超过5%的重大回撤事件") + + # 4. 相关性分析表格 + correlation_matrix = returns.corr() + correlation_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'correlation_matrix.csv') + correlation_matrix.to_csv(correlation_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 相关性矩阵表格已保存: tables/correlation_matrix.csv") + + # 5. 投资建议总结 + summary_points = [] + + # 基于收益率评价 + if metrics['年化收益率'] > 0.10: + summary_points.append('优秀收益:年化收益率超过10%') + elif metrics['年化收益率'] > 0.05: + summary_points.append('良好收益:年化收益率在5%-10%之间') + elif metrics['年化收益率'] > 0: + summary_points.append('正收益:年化收益率为正') + else: + summary_points.append('负收益:年化收益率为负') + + # 基于夏普比率评价 + if metrics['夏普比率'] > 1.0: + summary_points.append('优秀风险调整收益:夏普比率超过1.0') + elif metrics['夏普比率'] > 0.5: + summary_points.append('良好风险调整收益:夏普比率在0.5-1.0之间') + elif metrics['夏普比率'] > 0: + summary_points.append('正风险调整收益:夏普比率为正') + else: + summary_points.append('负风险调整收益:夏普比率为负') + + # 基于最大回撤评价 + if abs(metrics['最大回撤']) < 0.10: + summary_points.append('风险控制优秀:最大回撤小于10%') + elif abs(metrics['最大回撤']) < 0.20: + summary_points.append('风险控制良好:最大回撤在10%-20%之间') + elif abs(metrics['最大回撤']) < 0.30: + summary_points.append('风险较高:最大回撤在20%-30%之间') + else: + summary_points.append('风险很高:最大回撤超过30%') + + # 基于胜率评价 + if metrics['胜率'] > 0.55: + summary_points.append('高胜率:超过55%的交易日期获得正收益') + elif metrics['胜率'] > 0.45: + summary_points.append('适中胜率:在45%-55%之间') + else: + summary_points.append('低胜率:少于45%的交易日期获得正收益') + + # 保存投资建议 + summary_df = pd.DataFrame({'投资建议': summary_points}) + summary_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'tables', 'investment_recommendations.csv') + summary_df.to_csv(summary_file, encoding='utf-8-sig', index=False) + print(f"✓ 投资建议表格已保存: tables/investment_recommendations.csv") + + return config_df, performance_df + + +def save_charts(prices, asset_names, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, metrics, weights, output_dir): + """ + 保存分析图表为PNG图片 + """ + print("生成分析图表...") + + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + + # 图表1: 价格走势对比图 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + colors = ['#1f77b4', '#ff7f0e'] + + for i, asset in enumerate(asset_names): + normalized = stock_prices[asset] / stock_prices[asset].iloc[0] * 100 + plt.plot(stock_prices.index, normalized, label=f"{asset} ({weights[i] * 100:.0f}%)", + color=colors[i], linewidth=2.5) + + plt.title(f'归一化价格走势 (基准=100)\n{metrics["起始日期"]} 至 {metrics["结束日期"]}', + fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('价格指数', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.legend(fontsize=11) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + price_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '01_price_trend.png') + plt.savefig(price_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 价格走势图已保存: charts/01_price_trend.png") + + # 图表2: 投资组合累计收益 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + plt.plot(cumulative_returns.index, cumulative_returns * 100, + color='#2e8b57', linewidth=3) + plt.fill_between(cumulative_returns.index, 0, cumulative_returns * 100, + where=cumulative_returns >= 0, color='#2e8b57', alpha=0.3) + + plt.title(f'投资组合累计收益率\n年化收益率: {metrics["年化收益率"] * 100:.2f}%', + fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('累计收益 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + cumulative_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '02_cumulative_returns.png') + plt.savefig(cumulative_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 累计收益图已保存: charts/02_cumulative_returns.png") + + # 图表3: 回撤分析 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + plt.fill_between(drawdown.index, drawdown * 100, 0, + where=drawdown < 0, color='#ff6b6b', alpha=0.6) + plt.plot(drawdown.index, drawdown * 100, color='#c44d58', linewidth=2) + + plt.title(f'投资组合回撤分析\n最大回撤: {metrics["最大回撤"] * 100:.2f}%', + fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('回撤幅度 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + drawdown_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '03_drawdown_analysis.png') + plt.savefig(drawdown_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 回撤分析图已保存: charts/03_drawdown_analysis.png") + + # 图表4: 日收益率分布 + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + returns_pct = portfolio_returns * 100 + n_bins = min(50, len(returns_pct) // 5) + + plt.hist(returns_pct, bins=n_bins, alpha=0.7, color='#4ecdc4', + edgecolor='black', density=True) + plt.axvline(x=returns_pct.mean(), color='red', linestyle='--', + linewidth=2, label=f'均值: {returns_pct.mean():.2f}%') + + # 添加正态分布曲线 + try: + from scipy.stats import norm + mu, std = returns_pct.mean(), returns_pct.std() + x = np.linspace(returns_pct.min(), returns_pct.max(), 100) + p = norm.pdf(x, mu, std) + plt.plot(x, p, 'k', linewidth=2, label='正态分布') + except: + pass + + plt.title('日收益率分布', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.xlabel('日收益率 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.ylabel('概率密度', fontsize=12) + plt.legend(fontsize=11) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + distribution_chart_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '04_returns_distribution.png') + plt.savefig(distribution_chart_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 收益率分布图已保存: charts/04_returns_distribution.png") + + # 图表5: 月度收益率热力图(如果数据足够) + if len(portfolio_returns) >= 60: + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 10)) + monthly_returns = portfolio_returns.resample('M').apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) + + if len(monthly_returns) > 0: + years = sorted(set(monthly_returns.index.year)) + monthly_matrix = pd.DataFrame(index=years, columns=range(1, 13)) + + for year in years: + for month in range(1, 13): + month_data = monthly_returns[(monthly_returns.index.year == year) & + (monthly_returns.index.month == month)] + if not month_data.empty: + monthly_matrix.loc[year, month] = month_data.iloc[0] + + monthly_matrix_numeric = monthly_matrix.astype(float) * 100 + plt.imshow(monthly_matrix_numeric.values, cmap='RdYlGn', + aspect='auto', alpha=0.9, vmin=-15, vmax=15) + + # 添加数值标签 + for i in range(len(years)): + for j in range(12): + value = monthly_matrix_numeric.iloc[i, j] + if not np.isnan(value): + color = 'black' if abs(value) < 8 else 'white' + plt.text(j, i, f'{value:.1f}%', ha='center', va='center', + fontsize=9, color=color, fontweight='bold') + + plt.xticks(range(12), ['1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月', '6月', + '7月', '8月', '9月', '10月', '11月', '12月'], + rotation=45) + plt.yticks(range(len(years)), years) + plt.colorbar(label='月收益率 (%)') + plt.title('月度收益率热力图', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.xlabel('月份', fontsize=12) + plt.ylabel('年份', fontsize=12) + plt.tight_layout() + + heatmap_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '05_monthly_returns_heatmap.png') + plt.savefig(heatmap_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 月度收益率热力图已保存: charts/05_monthly_returns_heatmap.png") + + # 图表6: 年度收益率条形图 + if len(portfolio_returns) >= 252: + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + yearly_returns = portfolio_returns.resample('Y').apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) + + if len(yearly_returns) > 0: + yearly_returns.index = yearly_returns.index.year + colors_bar = ['#2ecc71' if x >= 0 else '#e74c3c' for x in yearly_returns] + + bars = plt.bar(yearly_returns.index.astype(str), yearly_returns.values * 100, + color=colors_bar, edgecolor='black', alpha=0.8) + + # 添加数值标签 + for i, v in enumerate(yearly_returns.values): + plt.text(i, v * 100 + (0.5 if v >= 0 else -1), f'{v * 100:.1f}%', + ha='center', va='bottom' if v >= 0 else 'top', + fontsize=10, fontweight='bold') + + plt.title('年度收益率', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('收益率 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('年份', fontsize=12) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3, axis='y') + plt.tight_layout() + + yearly_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '06_yearly_returns.png') + plt.savefig(yearly_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 年度收益率图已保存: charts/06_yearly_returns.png") + + # 图表7: 滚动收益分析 + if len(portfolio_returns) >= 60: + plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8)) + window_size = min(60, len(portfolio_returns) // 2) + rolling_return = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=window_size).mean() * 100 + + plt.plot(rolling_return.index, rolling_return, color='#4169e1', linewidth=2) + plt.axhline(y=portfolio_returns.mean() * 100, color='red', + linestyle='--', linewidth=1.5, label=f'平均: {portfolio_returns.mean() * 100:.2f}%') + + plt.title(f'滚动{window_size}日平均收益率', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') + plt.ylabel('日收益率 (%)', fontsize=12) + plt.xlabel('日期', fontsize=12) + plt.legend(fontsize=11) + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.tight_layout() + + rolling_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'charts', '07_rolling_returns.png') + plt.savefig(rolling_file, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight') + plt.close() + print(f"✓ 滚动收益图已保存: charts/07_rolling_returns.png") + + print(f"✓ 所有图表已保存至 {output_dir}/charts/ 目录") + + +def save_raw_data(prices, asset_names, returns, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, output_dir): + """ + 保存原始数据文件 + """ + print("保存原始数据文件...") + + stock_prices = prices[asset_names].copy() + + # 保存原始价格数据 + raw_prices_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'data', 'raw_prices.csv') + stock_prices.to_csv(raw_prices_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 原始价格数据已保存: data/raw_prices.csv") + + # 保存汇率数据 + exchange_rate_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'data', 'exchange_rate.csv') + prices['汇率_USD_CNY'].to_csv(exchange_rate_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 汇率数据已保存: data/exchange_rate.csv") + + # 保存收益率数据 + raw_returns_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'data', 'raw_returns.csv') + returns.to_csv(raw_returns_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 原始收益率数据已保存: data/raw_returns.csv") + + # 保存投资组合收益率数据 + portfolio_data = pd.DataFrame({ + '日收益率': portfolio_returns, + '累计收益率': cumulative_returns, + '回撤': drawdown + }) + portfolio_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'data', 'portfolio_performance.csv') + portfolio_data.to_csv(portfolio_file, encoding='utf-8-sig') + print(f"✓ 投资组合表现数据已保存: data/portfolio_performance.csv") + + # 创建README文件 + readme_content = f"""# 投资组合分析结果 + +## 分析概要 +- 分析资产: A股515450 + 美股QLD +- 分析期间: {stock_prices.index[0].date()} 至 {stock_prices.index[-1].date()} +- 总交易日数: {len(stock_prices)} +- 生成时间: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')} + +## 目录结构 +{output_dir}/ +├── tables/ # 各种分析表格(CSV格式) +│ ├── stock_prices_detailed.csv # 详细价格数据 +│ ├── stock_prices_summary.csv # 价格汇总统计 +│ ├── daily_returns.csv # 日收益率数据 +│ ├── returns_summary.csv # 收益率汇总统计 +│ ├── monthly_returns.csv # 月度收益率 +│ ├── yearly_returns.csv # 年度收益率 +│ ├── portfolio_configuration.csv # 投资组合配置 +│ ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 绩效指标 +│ ├── drawdown_analysis.csv # 回撤分析 +│ ├── correlation_matrix.csv # 相关性矩阵 +│ ├── investment_recommendations.csv # 投资建议 +│ ├── investment_simulation_details.csv # 投资模拟详情 +│ ├── investment_simulation_summary.csv # 投资模拟汇总 +│ └── investment_asset_details.csv # 各资产投资明细 +├── charts/ # 分析图表(PNG格式) +│ ├── 01_price_trend.png # 价格走势图 +│ ├── 02_cumulative_returns.png # 累计收益图 +│ ├── 03_drawdown_analysis.png # 回撤分析图 +│ ├── 04_returns_distribution.png # 收益率分布图 +│ ├── 05_monthly_returns_heatmap.png # 月度收益率热力图 +│ ├── 06_yearly_returns.png # 年度收益率图 +│ ├── 07_rolling_returns.png # 滚动收益图 +│ ├── 08_investment_growth.png # 资产增长曲线 +│ ├── 09_investment_returns.png # 投资累计收益率 +│ └── 10_investment_progress.png # 投资进度图 +└── data/ # 原始数据文件 + ├── raw_prices.csv # 原始价格数据 + ├── raw_returns.csv # 原始收益率数据 + ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 投资组合表现数据 + └── exchange_rate.csv # 汇率数据 + +## 使用说明 +1. 所有表格均为CSV格式,可用Excel、Python pandas等工具打开 +2. 所有图表均为PNG格式,分辨率为300dpi +3. 原始数据可用于进一步分析 +4. 投资建议基于历史数据分析,仅供参考 + +## 注意事项 +- 本分析基于历史数据,不代表未来表现 +- 投资有风险,决策需谨慎 +- 建议结合其他分析工具和个人风险偏好进行投资决策 +""" + + readme_file = os.path.join(output_dir, 'README.txt') + with open(readme_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: + f.write(readme_content) + print(f"✓ README文件已生成: README.txt") + + +def main(): + """ + 主程序 + """ + print("=" * 80) + print("A股515450与美股QLD投资组合分析系统") + print("=" * 80) + + # 创建输出目录 + output_dir = create_output_directory() + + try: + # 1. 获取股票数据 + print("\n步骤1: 获取股票数据") + prices = get_stock_data() + + # 2. 获取用户输入的权重 + print("\n步骤2: 配置投资组合权重") + weights, asset_names = get_user_weights(list(prices.columns)) + + # 3. 获取投资计划 + print("\n步骤3: 配置投资计划") + investment_plan = get_investment_plan() + + # 4. 计算投资组合表现 + print("\n步骤4: 计算投资组合表现") + portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, metrics, returns = calculate_portfolio_performance( + prices, weights, asset_names + ) + + # 5. 计算投资模拟 + print("\n步骤5: 计算投资模拟") + simulation_results = calculate_investment_simulation(prices, weights, asset_names, investment_plan) + + # 6. 保存所有表格到CSV文件 + print("\n步骤6: 生成分析表格(CSV格式)") + save_stock_price_table(prices, asset_names, output_dir) + save_returns_table(prices, asset_names, returns, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, output_dir) + save_portfolio_summary_table(prices, asset_names, weights, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, metrics, + returns, + output_dir) + save_investment_simulation_results(simulation_results, output_dir) + + # 7. 保存原始数据 + save_raw_data(prices, asset_names, returns, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, output_dir) + + # 8. 生成并保存所有图表为PNG文件 + print("\n步骤7: 生成分析图表(PNG格式)") + save_charts(prices, asset_names, portfolio_returns, cumulative_returns, drawdown, metrics, weights, output_dir) + create_investment_charts(simulation_results, output_dir) + + # 9. 在终端显示关键结果摘要 + print("\n" + "=" * 80) + print("投资组合关键结果摘要") + print("=" * 80) + print(f"分析期间: {metrics['起始日期']} 至 {metrics['结束日期']}") + print(f"投资周期: {metrics['总年数']:.2f} 年") + print(f"年化收益率: {metrics['年化收益率'] * 100:.2f}%") + print(f"累计收益率: {metrics['累计收益率'] * 100:.2f}%") + print(f"年化波动率: {metrics['年化波动率'] * 100:.2f}%") + print(f"最大回撤: {metrics['最大回撤'] * 100:.2f}%") + print(f"夏普比率: {metrics['夏普比率']:.3f}") + print(f"索提诺比率: {metrics['索提诺比率']:.3f}") + print(f"胜率: {metrics['胜率'] * 100:.1f}%") + + # 10. 显示投资模拟结果摘要 + summary = simulation_results['summary'] + print("\n" + "=" * 80) + print("投资模拟结果摘要") + print("=" * 80) + print(f"初始本金: {summary['初始本金_元']:.2f} 元") + print(f"每月定投: {summary['每月定投_元']:.2f} 元") + print(f"总投资额: {summary['总投资额_元']:.2f} 元") + print(f"最终资产总值: {summary['最终资产总值_元']:.2f} 元") + print(f"总收益: {summary['总收益_元']:.2f} 元") + print(f"总收益率: {summary['总收益率_%']:.2f}%") + print(f"年化收益率: {summary['年化收益率_%']:.2f}%") + print(f"投资期间: {summary['投资起始日期']} 至 {summary['投资结束日期']}") + print(f"投资天数: {summary['投资天数']} 天 ({summary['投资年数']:.2f} 年)") + print(f"投资笔数: {summary['现金投资笔数']} 笔") + print(f"投资组合理论增长倍数: {summary['投资组合增长倍数']:.4f}") + + print("\n" + "=" * 80) + print(f"分析完成! 所有结果已保存至: {output_dir}/") + print("=" * 80) + print("包含以下内容:") + print("✓ 表格文件 (CSV格式): tables/ 目录") + print("✓ 图表文件 (PNG格式): charts/ 目录") + print("✓ 原始数据: data/ 目录") + print("✓ 说明文件: README.txt") + print("=" * 80) + + except KeyboardInterrupt: + print("\n\n程序被用户中断") + return 1 + except Exception as e: + print(f"\n错误: {str(e)}") + import traceback + traceback.print_exc() + print("程序退出") + return 1 + + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + # 检查必要库是否安装 + required_libs = ['akshare', 'yfinance', 'pandas', 'numpy', 'matplotlib'] + + missing_libs = [] + for lib in required_libs: + try: + __import__(lib) + except ImportError: + missing_libs.append(lib) + + if missing_libs: + print(f"错误: 缺少必要的库: {', '.join(missing_libs)}") + print("请运行以下命令安装:") + print(f"pip install {' '.join(missing_libs)}") + if 'akshare' in missing_libs: + print("\n注意: AKShare可能需要额外配置,如果安装失败可以尝试:") + print("pip install akshare --upgrade") + exit(1) + + # 运行主程序 + print("程序启动 - A股515450与美股QLD投资组合分析") + exit_code = main() + exit(exit_code) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/README.txt b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/README.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5cdc10c --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/README.txt @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +# 投资组合分析结果 + +## 分析概要 +- 分析资产: A股515450 + 美股QQQ +- 分析期间: 2020-12-07 至 2025-12-05 +- 总交易日数: 1300 +- 生成时间: 2025-12-05 19:04:16 + +## 目录结构 +portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/ +├── tables/ # 各种分析表格(CSV格式) +│ ├── stock_prices_detailed.csv # 详细价格数据 +│ ├── stock_prices_summary.csv # 价格汇总统计 +│ ├── daily_returns.csv # 日收益率数据 +│ ├── returns_summary.csv # 收益率汇总统计 +│ ├── monthly_returns.csv # 月度收益率 +│ ├── yearly_returns.csv # 年度收益率 +│ ├── portfolio_configuration.csv # 投资组合配置 +│ ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 绩效指标 +│ ├── drawdown_analysis.csv # 回撤分析 +│ ├── correlation_matrix.csv # 相关性矩阵 +│ ├── investment_recommendations.csv # 投资建议 +│ ├── investment_simulation_details.csv # 投资模拟详情 +│ ├── investment_simulation_summary.csv # 投资模拟汇总 +│ └── investment_asset_details.csv # 各资产投资明细 +├── charts/ # 分析图表(PNG格式) +│ ├── 01_price_trend.png # 价格走势图 +│ ├── 02_cumulative_returns.png # 累计收益图 +│ ├── 03_drawdown_analysis.png # 回撤分析图 +│ ├── 04_returns_distribution.png # 收益率分布图 +│ ├── 05_monthly_returns_heatmap.png # 月度收益率热力图 +│ ├── 06_yearly_returns.png # 年度收益率图 +│ ├── 07_rolling_returns.png # 滚动收益图 +│ ├── 08_investment_growth.png # 资产增长曲线 +│ ├── 09_investment_returns.png # 投资累计收益率 +│ └── 10_investment_progress.png # 投资进度图 +└── data/ # 原始数据文件 + ├── raw_prices.csv # 原始价格数据 + ├── raw_returns.csv # 原始收益率数据 + ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 投资组合表现数据 + └── exchange_rate.csv # 汇率数据 + +## 使用说明 +1. 所有表格均为CSV格式,可用Excel、Python pandas等工具打开 +2. 所有图表均为PNG格式,分辨率为300dpi +3. 原始数据可用于进一步分析 +4. 投资建议基于历史数据分析,仅供参考 + +## 注意事项 +- 本分析基于历史数据,不代表未来表现 +- 投资有风险,决策需谨慎 +- 建议结合其他分析工具和个人风险偏好进行投资决策 diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/charts/01_price_trend.png b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/charts/01_price_trend.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..929167c Binary files /dev/null and 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a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_configuration.csv b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_configuration.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a3366f --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_configuration.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +资产,权重%,"配置金额(假设¥10,000)",累计收益%,年化波动率% +A股_515450,40.0,4000.0,104.6478873239447,18.182899641321402 +美股_QQQ,60.0,6000.0,109.03466068947787,22.271976902809236 diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_performance.csv b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_performance.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b57128d --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/portfolio_performance.csv @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +指标类别,指标名称,数值 +时间信息,分析期间,2020-12-07 至 2025-12-05 +时间信息,总交易日数,1299 天 +时间信息,分析周期,4.99 年 +收益指标,累计收益率,118.29% +收益指标,年化收益率,16.92% +收益指标,日均收益率,0.0646% +收益指标,正收益天数,705 天 +收益指标,胜率,54.3% +风险指标,年化波动率,15.12% +风险指标,最大回撤,-26.00% +风险指标,年化下行风险,10.40% 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+A股_515450,0.71,1.453,104.64788732394368,15.419232450949071,1.49,0.672,1.0504576923076923,0.23247297006631246,1300,2020-12-07,2025-12-05 +美股_QQQ,298.00799560546875,622.9400024414062,109.03466068947805,15.910468706517111,635.77001953125,255.5943145751953,395.3660239703839,95.85359595479295,1300,2020-12-07,2025-12-05 diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/yearly_returns.csv b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/yearly_returns.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..023773d --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190343/tables/yearly_returns.csv @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +Date,A股_515450,美股_QQQ,投资组合 +2020-12-31,-0.028169014084507782,0.022973589895306956,0.0026693478985437835 +2021-12-31,0.3057971014492762,0.2741976397937589,0.299740624879248 +2022-12-31,-0.053274139844617485,-0.32577015425318634,-0.212995524281959 +2023-12-31,0.20750293083235638,0.5485560368358247,0.41042314567907723 +2024-12-31,0.3524271844660216,0.2557826334648212,0.30427402439152185 +2025-12-31,0.0430725053840626,0.2231161881697863,0.15695573826719333 diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/README.txt b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/README.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2291311 --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/README.txt @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +# 投资组合分析结果 + +## 分析概要 +- 分析资产: A股515450 + 美股QLD +- 分析期间: 2020-12-07 至 2025-12-05 +- 总交易日数: 1300 +- 生成时间: 2025-12-05 19:10:15 + +## 目录结构 +portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/ +├── tables/ # 各种分析表格(CSV格式) +│ ├── stock_prices_detailed.csv # 详细价格数据 +│ ├── stock_prices_summary.csv # 价格汇总统计 +│ ├── daily_returns.csv # 日收益率数据 +│ ├── returns_summary.csv # 收益率汇总统计 +│ ├── monthly_returns.csv # 月度收益率 +│ ├── yearly_returns.csv # 年度收益率 +│ ├── portfolio_configuration.csv # 投资组合配置 +│ ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 绩效指标 +│ ├── drawdown_analysis.csv # 回撤分析 +│ ├── correlation_matrix.csv # 相关性矩阵 +│ ├── investment_recommendations.csv # 投资建议 +│ ├── investment_simulation_details.csv # 投资模拟详情 +│ ├── investment_simulation_summary.csv # 投资模拟汇总 +│ └── investment_asset_details.csv # 各资产投资明细 +├── charts/ # 分析图表(PNG格式) +│ ├── 01_price_trend.png # 价格走势图 +│ ├── 02_cumulative_returns.png # 累计收益图 +│ ├── 03_drawdown_analysis.png # 回撤分析图 +│ ├── 04_returns_distribution.png # 收益率分布图 +│ ├── 05_monthly_returns_heatmap.png # 月度收益率热力图 +│ ├── 06_yearly_returns.png # 年度收益率图 +│ ├── 07_rolling_returns.png # 滚动收益图 +│ ├── 08_investment_growth.png # 资产增长曲线 +│ ├── 09_investment_returns.png # 投资累计收益率 +│ └── 10_investment_progress.png # 投资进度图 +└── data/ # 原始数据文件 + ├── raw_prices.csv # 原始价格数据 + ├── raw_returns.csv # 原始收益率数据 + ├── portfolio_performance.csv # 投资组合表现数据 + └── exchange_rate.csv # 汇率数据 + +## 使用说明 +1. 所有表格均为CSV格式,可用Excel、Python pandas等工具打开 +2. 所有图表均为PNG格式,分辨率为300dpi +3. 原始数据可用于进一步分析 +4. 投资建议基于历史数据分析,仅供参考 + +## 注意事项 +- 本分析基于历史数据,不代表未来表现 +- 投资有风险,决策需谨慎 +- 建议结合其他分析工具和个人风险偏好进行投资决策 diff --git a/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/charts/01_price_trend.png 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b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/tables/yearly_returns.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..679e2f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/portfolio_analysis_20251205_190933/tables/yearly_returns.csv @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +Date,A股_515450,美股_QLD,投资组合 +2020-12-31,-0.028169014084507782,0.04360832351935784,0.015108043137775917 +2021-12-31,0.3057971014492762,0.5466943981092007,0.47861179916538865 +2022-12-31,-0.053274139844617485,-0.6052240874315733,-0.4069057572571425 +2023-12-31,0.20750293083235638,1.17721584291309,0.7490826433156279 +2024-12-31,0.3524271844660216,0.4281466388088715,0.42565476395896606 +2025-12-31,0.0430725053840626,0.34406629359925156,0.24738380876972688